Version 2: Fri, Jun 19, 2026
New books in my future reading list, and possibly yours too!
New in the second version books by Frank, Hudson, Schuilenburg and Christiansen.
Bad Energy: The AI Hucksters, Rogue Lithium Extractors, and Wind Industrialists Who Are Selling Off Our Future https://www.haymarketbooks.org/books/2772-bad-energy by Joshua Frank - Haymarket Books - Sep 1, 2026
Version 1: Fri, May 29, 2026
Energy independence - Illustration by Linas Garsys, The Washington Times
Everybody is looking at the war against Iran but there may be something bigger going. What exactly is in Trump’s mind? A few links that may help, somewhat.
Version 1: Fri, May 22, 2026
Kenya protests over fuel prices - 1 - Source: Al Jazeera
A collection of recent articles about the mess Trump and company are in.
Version 2: Fri, May 8, 2026
The first version of this post came out on Feb 13 with title “NSS, Drugs and Marco Rubio”. In this version I have added links to the expanding role of technocracy Latin America.
In the context of the “Trump Corollary” to the the Monroe Doctrine, technocracy is a new way (attack vector if you like) to dominate the hemisphere, and that explains the title change.
There is also a section with most of the books mentioned in the articles.
(2).jpg#/media/File:Official_portrait_of_Secretary_Marco_Rubio_(cropped)(2).jpg)
By
U.S. Department of State -
https://www.state.gov/biographies/marco-rubio/,
Public Domain,
Link
Official portrait of U.S. Secretary of State, Marco Rubio - Wikimedia
The National Security Strategy 2025 was published on December 5, and mentions drugs on page 11 (NSS 2025):
We must protect our country from invasion, not just from unchecked migration but from cross-border threats such as terrorism, drugs, espionage, and human trafficking. A border controlled by the will of the American people as implemented by their government is fundamental to the survival of the United States as a sovereign republic.
NSS on the ‘Western Hemisphere’ (essentially Latin America) on page 5:
We want to ensure that the Western Hemisphere remains reasonably stable and well-governed enough to prevent and discourage mass migration to the United States; we want a Hemisphere whose governments cooperate with us against narco-terrorists, cartels, and other transnational criminal organizations; we want a Hemisphere that remains free of hostile foreign incursion or ownership of key assets, and that supports critical supply chains; and we want to ensure our continued access to key strategic locations. In other words, we will assert and enforce a “Trump Corollary” to the Monroe Doctrine;
On December 23, The America Prospect Magazine published Maureen Tkacik’s article (Tkacik 2025).
A few weeks later, on January 11, 2026, Tkacik talked with Chris Hedges and the transcript of the interview was published by the Brave New Europe magazine (Hedges 2026).
The fact that Marco Rubio’s brother in law Orlando Cicilia wwent to prison for 12 years for drug trafficking has been reported before (Roig-Franzia 2015).
Tkacik goes beyond Cicila to the head of the gang Guillermo Tabraue and to the Cuban anti-communist Bay of Pigs veteran and drug-trafficking with CIA milieu. She writes (Tkacik 2025):
On the tenth week of Guillermo Tabraue’s 1989 criminal trial, a man named Gary Mattocks showed up at the courthouse and testified that he’d been Guillermo Tabraue’s handler for four years at the CIA’s DEACON project inside the DEA. Mattocks had previously been the liaison of Sandinista defector Edén Pastora, a prolific Contra trafficker based in Costa Rica; both had been present during Barry Seal’s sting operation. It was rumored George Bush himself had personally ordered Mattocks to disrupt the proceeding.
This is the environment that Marco Rubio grew up into and it seems it has influenced his politics and his views about foreign policy.
From (Tkacik 2025):
Ecuador
In September, Rubio hailed Ecuadoran President Daniel Noboa, who leads a country whose homicide rate has risen eightfold since 2016, as an “incredibly willing partner” who “has done more just in the last couple years to take the fight to these narco-terrorists and these threats to the security and stability of Ecuador than any previous administration.” Just five months earlier, a damning investigation revealed that Noboa’s family fruit business had trafficked 700 kilos of cocaine to Europe in banana crates between 2020 and 2022.
Daniel Noboa’s family business, President of Ecuador, is involved in cocaine trafficking to Europe https://revistaraya.com/daniel-noboas-family-business-president-of-ecuador-is-involved-in-cocaine-trafficking-to-europe - 29 Mar 2025 - Archive https://archive.ph/ZYYe1
Comment: Given the extensive presence of the Albanian mafia in Ecuador, additional ‘exciting’ linkages should be explored. CIA did not have any qualms bringing drugs into their country, so why would they have any problems doing the same using for example the Albanian Mafia to bring cocaie into Europe?
Chile
Rubio has been one of the Beltway’s biggest backers of newly elected Chilean president José Antonio Kast, the son of a literal Nazi war criminal who has spent his entire political career lionizing, whitewashing, and promising a restoration of the brutal reign of Augusto Pinochet, who personally ordered the Chilean army to build a cocaine laboratory, consolidated the narcotics trade inside his terrifying secret police, and then allegedly “disappeared” key conspirators like his secret police chemist Eugenio Berríos.
(Blanch 2026) has additional information on Honduras and Venezuela. In the photo below Marco Rubio with Juan Guaido - 2022 - Wikimedia
.png#/media/File:Marco_Rubio_and_Mario_DB_meets_with_Juan_Guaido_(2).png)
By
Office of Senator Marco Rubio -
https://www.rubio.senate.gov/public/index.cfm/press-releases?ID=B638230C-5967-4366-AD95-90D80807C398,
Public Domain,
Link
(Tkacik 2025) says:
Today, Marco Rubio is the Trump administration’s most formidable liar. … But Rubio’s approval ratings are the highest in the Republican Party, even as he is the architect of what is arguably Trump’s single most cynical policy: the scheme to appoint drug cartel bosses and their cronies atop the governments of every Latin American country, in the name of fighting drug cartels.
Tkacik is right, drugs will continue to play a major role, but there is something new. Commenting myself from the previous post:
Comment: If that pans out we should expect uncertainty to increase in Latin America and even more weak governments. That would open the field for people like Peter Thiel to push for projects like Prospera and Alex Karp to be there to provide security services.
The comment was in the right direction but things are moving fast:
(Moreno 2026) A Neocolonial Billionaire Fantasy in Honduras https://consortiumnews.com/2026/02/23/a-neocolonial-billionaire-fantasy-in-honduras/ by Edith Romero - Consortium News - Feb 23, 2026 - Archive https://archive.ph/Iuh6J
Among other corrupt dealings and land grabs, the government approved a law that enabled the creation of Peter Thiel’s Zones for Employment and Economic Development (ZEDEs). ZEDEs derive from the idea of “charter cities.”
Proposed by former World Bank executive and economist Paul Romer, these proposed cities are enclaves within lower-income nations that “promote economic growth” through privatization and the disposal of national regulations, while gifting major tax incentives for foreign nations to invest in businesses.
Special economic zones in Kenya, Bangladesh, and Ethiopia have faced criticism due to low wages, harsh working conditions, and threats to rights to free association and collective bargaining. Romer, one of the initial proponents of ZEDEs in Honduras, expressed criticism in 2015 regarding the Honduran ZEDEs and their lack of accountability to local laws, and anti-democratic governance.
These ZEDEs are a project of Praxis, a tech billionaire-funded start-up that aims to create libertarian city-states to “restore Western Civilization.”
And she continues later on:
A sought-after spot for foreign luxury tourism and investment, Roatan saw the foundation of Próspera in 2017 with funding from the likes of Peter Thiel and Pronomos Capital led by Patri Friedman, a grandson of Milton Friedman, seen by many as the father of neoliberalism, deregulation and privatization.
Nasry Asfura with Trump at the Mar-a-Lago Club in Palm Beach, Florida, Feb. 7, 2026. (White House /Joyce N. Boghosian) - Source: Consortium News
(Nino 2025) The Real Story Behind Trump’s Pardon of Juan Orlando Hernández: The story of a man who turned a lifetime of pro-Israel service into the ultimate form of political protection https://www.josealnino.org/p/the-real-story-behind-trumps-pardon by José Alberto Niño - José Niño Unfiltered - Dec 06, 2025 - Archive https://archive.ph/ulUg0
(Red Diary 2025) EXCLUSIVE: Audios reveal that Israel paid for the release of Juan Orlando Hernández and that Trump is helping him return to the presidency of Honduras https://www.diario-red.com/articulo/america-latina/exclusiva-audios-revelan-que-israel-pago-liberacion-juan-orlando-hernandez-que-trump-ayudando-regresar-presidencia-honduras/20260429021833068541.html by Valeria Duarte Galleguillos - Red Diary - 30/04/26 - Archive <> #Hondurasgate
(Corbishley 2026) Leaked Audio Files Point to Israeli Involvement in Trump’s Pardon of Honduran “Narco-President” Juan Orlando Hernández https://www.nakedcapitalism.com/2026/05/leaked-audios-point-to-israeli-role-in-trumps-presidential-pardon-of-honduran-narco-president.html by Nick Corbishley - Naked Capitalism - May 1, 2026 - Archive https://archive.is/TRE5q
The Trump and Netanyahu governments allegedly have big plans for the newly freed Hernández, including putting him back in power in Honduras.
Leaked WhatsApp, Telegram and Signal audio messages published this week by the Spanish news website Canal RED suggest that pro-Israel groups helped secure President Trump’s pardon of Honduran president and convicted drug trafficker Juan Orlando Hernandez, popularly known by his initials JOH, from US federal prison late last year.
According to the recordings, the arrangement consisted of trading Trump’s pardon for a package of concessions in Honduras. However, as Drop Site News notes, “they do not clearly delineate which concessions are assigned to which actor, but frame them as part of a joint U.S.- and Israel-aligned agenda in the country”.
According to Corbishley “The audio files, if authentic, imply that the US and Israel are pursuing four main objectives in their support of JOH:”
(Jimenez 2026) Palantir in Argentina and the Future of U.S. Dominance https://www.nakedcapitalism.com/2026/04/palantir-in-argentina-and-the-future-of-u-s-dominance.html by Curro Jimenez - Naked Capitalism - April 28, 2026 - Archive https://archive.ph/3QIMw
Peter Thiel has bought a $12 million house in the most exclusive area of Buenos Aires, Argentina. He has also held meetings with government officials and the president, who described the encounter as a “wonderful conversation among anarcho-capitalists.” But that’s not quite all.
The content of those conversations has not been made public; however, local media reports that Thiel held meetings with presidential advisor Santiago Caputo and the head of the Ministry of Deregulation and State Transformation, Federico Sturzenegger. According to those reports, these meetings addressed, among other topics, the country’s technological and energy potential.
When Thiel meets with government officials, we must assume that it is not simply out of a feeling of friendship. He is the co-founder of Palantir, a technology company specialized in selling surveillance software applied to civil and military scenarios so states. We should probably assume, as local media does, that those discussions were on the table, since Milei had expressed an interest beforehand and in 2024 founded the Artificial Intelligence Unit Applied to Security.
(NSS2025) National Security Strategy 2025 https://www.whitehouse.gov/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/2025-National-Security-Strategy.pdf PDF 33 pages - November, 2025
(Tkacik 2025) The Narco-Terrorist Elite: Why is Marco Rubio so hell-bent on making Iran-Contra again? https://prospect.org/2025/12/23/narco-terrorist-elite-rubio-south-america-iran-contra/ By Maureen Tkacik - The American Prospect - December 23, 2025 - Archive https://archive.ph/TMw63
(Hedges 2026) Maureen Tkacik, Chris Hedges: The Narco-Trafficking Elite Set to Run Venezuela https://braveneweurope.com/maureen-tkacik-chris-hedges-the-narco-trafficking-elite-set-to-run-venezuela Chris Hedges talks with Maureen Tkacik - BNE - January 11, 2026 - Archive https://archive.ph/uBHKY
(Roig-Franzia 2015) The drug-smuggling case that brought anguish to Marco Rubio’s family https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/the-drug-smuggling-ring-that-brought-anguish-tomarco-rubios-family/2015/12/12/473f3a2c-9db6-11e5-a3c5-c77f2cc5a43c_story.html By Manuel Roig-Franzia and Scott Higham - Washington Post - December 12, 2015 - Archive https://archive.ph/XP7PL
(Blanch 2026) The mythomaniac Marco Rubio: The U.S. Secretary of State epitomizes the moral crisis of the empire’s elites https://en.granma.cu/mundo/2026-01-08/the-mythomaniac-marco-rubio by Hedelberto López Blanch - Granma - January 8, 2026 - Archive https://archive.ph/4ukZ3
(Anderson 2018) Che: A Revolutionary Life https://www.penguinrandomhouse.com/books/548044/che-by-jon-lee-anderson-and-jose-hernandez/ By Jon Lee Anderson, Penguin Press, 2018.
(Castillo 1994) Powderburns: Cocaine, Contras & the Drug War By Celerino Castillo III and Dave Harmon Mosaic Press 1994
(Harp 2025) The Fort Bragg Cartel: Drug Trafficking and Murder in the Special Forces https://www.penguinrandomhouse.com/books/730414/the-fort-bragg-cartel-by-seth-harp/ By Seth Harp, Viking, 2025
A groundbreaking investigation into a string of unsolved murders at America’s premier special operations base, and what the crimes reveal about drug trafficking and impunity among elite soldiers in today’s military
(Kolb 2008) America at Night: The True Story of Two Rogue CIA Operatives, Homeland Security Failures, Dirty Money, and a Plot to Steal the 2004 U.S. Presidential Election https://www.penguinrandomhouse.com/books/297016/america-at-night-by-larry-j-kolb/ By Larry J. Kolb - Penguin, 2008
(Marshall 1987) The Iran-Contra connection : secret teams and covert operations in the Reagan era https://archive.org/details/irancontraconnec0000mars/page/n5/mode/2up by Marshall, Jonathan, Peter Dale Scott and Jane Haapiseva-Hunter, South End Press, 1987
(McCoy 2003) The Politics of Heroin: CIA Complicity in the Global Drug Trade by Alfred W. McCoy and Cathleen B. Read - The third and expanded edition was published in 2003 https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Politics_of_Heroin_in_Southeast_Asia (ISBN 1-55652-483-8).
(Roig-Franzia 2015) The Rise of Marco Rubio https://www.simonandschuster.com/books/The-Rise-of-Marco-Rubio/Manuel-Roig-Franzia/9781451675467 By Manuel Roig-Franzia, Simon & Schuster, 2015
(Rubio 2012) An American Son: A Memoir https://www.penguinrandomhouse.com/books/311989/an-american-son-by-marco-rubio/ISBN9781101592373 By Marco Rubio, Penguin, 2012
(Scott 1998) Cocaine Politics: Drugs, Armies, and the CIA in Central America https://www.peterdalescott.net/bib3a/ by Peter Dale Scott and Jonathan Marshall, University of California Press, 1998
Discusses the Kerry Report and the body of evidence that the CIA dealt with and protected drug traffickers in Central America, finally admitted by the CIA in 1998 in an Inspector General’s Report.
For inspiration:
By
Agustín Casasola -
https://static1.squarespace.com/static/56420085e4b0a6ed01ccece1/58ec1c7cd482e9e6fdab471e/58ec1cb16a49630e8a3f5e5e/1491868856228/Emiliano+Zapata.jpg,
Public Domain,
Link
Emiliano Zapata in 1914 - Wikimedia
Started: Fri, Feb 13, 2026
By
denn
-
Tsinghua,
CC
BY-SA 2.0,
Link
The Tsinghua University campus in Beijing, China. - Source: Wikimedia
A recent article:
(Wagner 2026) China surpasses US in research spending – the consequences extend far beyond scientific ranking and clout https://theconversation.com/china-surpasses-us-in-research-spending-the-consequences-extend-far-beyond-scientific-ranking-and-clout-280543 by Caroline Wagner - The Conversation - April 24, 2026 - Archive https://archive.ph/5NSCR
Caroline Wagner is Professor of Public Affairs, at the Ohio State University.
From the article (emphasis added):
And she continues:
China’s ascent is, in one sense, good news. More knowledge, generated by more researchers across more institutions, expands the global pool of discovery from which everyone can draw. The world benefits when science thrives.
The problem is not that China is investing, but that the U.S. is not.
Definitely an article to read. In addition the OECD report mentioned:
(OECD 2026) OECD overall R&D growth stable; government R&D budgets decline and reorient towards defence https://www.oecd.org/en/data/insights/statistical-releases/2026/03/oecd-overall-rd-growth-stable-government-rd-budgets-decline-and-reorient-towards-defence.html 31 March 2026 - Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development.
(Economist 2024)China has become a scientific superpower: From plant biology to superconductor physics the country is at the cutting edge https://www.economist.com/science-and-technology/2024/06/12/china-has-become-a-scientific-superpower Jun 12, 2024 - Archive https://archive.ph/D3S4u
(ASPI 2024) ASPI’s two-decade Critical Technology Tracker: The rewards of long-term research investment https://www.aspi.org.au/report/aspis-two-decade-critical-technology-tracker/ Australian Strategic Policy Institute - 28 August 2024 - PDF 72 pages.
If you are on X/Twitter try also the following search for my posts in the past few years:
(from:@metacode) #ChinaSciTech
Thorium and nuclear energy goes back to the 1940s in the Barkeley Lab, and although the US operated a ship using it, for many reasons it did not lead to a solution. However China’s determination made the US idea work.
Full transcript of a conversation between Prof. Glenn Diesen and Henry Tillman, the CEO of Aiyana Advisory and Research:
(Pangambam 2025) Transcript of Henry Tillman: China’s Thorium Revolution – 60.000 Years of Cheap Energy https://singjupost.com/transcript-of-henry-tillman-chinas-thorium-revolution-60-000-years-of-cheap-energy/ by S. Pangambam - April 23, 2025 - Archive https://archive.ph/6gHAO
But the story is thorium goes back to the 1830s in Norway as a rare earth, basically. And it was by 1941 in the US at Berkeley, where I went to school later on, of course, both plutonium and thorium were in the mix for the Manhattan Project. But thorium is not explosive on its own. So the choice was made for plutonium.
By 1959, Edmund Teller, as part of the Eisenhower for Safe Nuclear, had developed thorium as a nuclear reactor and presented it to the first US oil company in 1959, saying we have a problem with CO2 and here’s the solution for it because it’s clean burn and it’s non-explosive.
From 1962 to 1972 the US ran the first cargo ship on thorium for 10 straight years, no incidents. And then it also was run at Oak Ridge onshore from 1965 to 1969 for about 13,000 hours. It was sporadic, but in 1972 led by US Admiral Rickover, who was quite a character with Nixon, the ultimate plan was not to use thorium going forward, but they’d use plutonium in the nuclear program.
So from 1972 to 2011, the US backed by the UK had locked down the formula for the use of thorium. Then Fukushima happened. By the time Fukushima happened, the US had decided, we have to go back in time. At some point around 2011, the US opened up that technology to many universities and many governments. It was also led by the research I’ve done by two US senators, one from Utah and one from Nevada, Harry Reid, to say, let’s open this up. If you use this, you have to give the IP back. So they gave this to Jiang Jimen’s son, literally from China in 2011, but it also went to Russia and a number of other countries.
(Lague 2013) SPECIAL REPORT-The U.S. government lab behind China’s nuclear power push by David Lague and Charlie Zhu - Dec 20, 2013 - Archive https://web.archive.org/web/20181123125037/https://in.reuters.com/article/breakout-thorium-idINL4N0FE21U20131220
Jiang Mianheng, son of former Chinese president Jiang Zemin, visited Oak Ridge in 2010 and brokered a cooperation agreement with the lab. The deal gave the Chinese Academy of Sciences, which has a staff of 50,000, the plans for a thorium reactor. In January 2011, Jiang signed a protocol with the Department of Energy outlining the terms of joint energy research with the academy.
An electrical engineer trained at Drexel University in Philadelphia, Jiang told a conference on thorium in Shanghai last year China’s thorium project “is 100 percent financed by the central government.”
The protocol stipulates that intellectual property arising from the joint research will be shared with the global scientific community. It excludes sharing commercially confidential information and any other material that the parties agree to withhold. The pact also specifically rules out any military or weapons-related research. “All activities conducted under this protocol shall be exclusively for peaceful purposes,” it says.
Jess Gehin, a nuclear-reactor physicist at Oak Ridge, says the pact allows the two sides to share information about their research.
As project chief scientist Xu Hongjie put it:
Rabbits sometimes make mistakes or grow lazy. That’s when the tortoise seizes its chance.
Comment: If China manages to scale it, 10-15 years from now Trump-like shenanigans will not matter at all. All the Chinese have to do is keep focused and that is what they do.
Started: Thu, Apr 30, 2026
Earlier this year I came across Ron Unz’s article “Oddities of the Jewish Religion” (Unz 2018).
Part of the article discusses the work of Israel Shahak, an award-winning Chemistry professor at Hebrew University and human-rights activist.
One of Shahak’s books is Jewish History, Jewish Religion (Shahak 1994).
Motivated by the article I have started reading the book and recommend it. The book is short but dense. Here is the very first paragraph that sets the stage:
This book, although written in English and addressed to people living outside the State of Israel, is, in a way, a continuation of my political activities as an Israeli Jew. Those activities began in 1965-6 with a protest which caused a considerable scandal at the time: I had personally witnessed an ultra-religious Jew refuse to allow his phone to be used on the Sabbath in order to call an ambulance for a non-Jew who happened to have collapsed in his Jerusalem neighbourhood. Instead of simply publishing the incident in the press, I asked for a meeting which is composed of rabbis nominated by the State of Israel. I asked them whether such behavior was consistent with their interpretation of the Jewish religion. They answered that the Jew in question had behaved correctly, indeed piously, and backed their statement by referring me to a passage in an authoritative compendium of Talmudic laws, written in this century. I reported the incident to the main Hebrew daily, Ha’aretz, whose publication of the story caused a media scandal.
Important to mention, the book has two prefaces, one by Gore Vidal, and the other Edward Said.
Sources
(Shahak 1994) Jewish History, Jewish Religion, the Weight of 3000 Years by Israel Shahak, 1994. Available online: https://ifamericansknew.org/cur_sit/shahak.html
(Unz 2018) American Pravda: Oddities of the Jewish Religion: The Surprising Elements of Talmudic Judaism https://www.unz.com/runz/american-pravda-oddities-of-the-jewish-religion/ by Ron Unz - July 16, 2018 - Unz Review - Archive https://archive.is/hBJrz
Started: Fri, Apr 24, 2026
No Farms, No Food! Farmer protest in Ireland, April 2026. Source: Iowa Public Radio.
Most discussions seem to be about oil but there is another commodity affected by the Hormuz closing.
(Johnson 2026) Choke Point: The Global Economic Consequences of the Persian Gulf Shutdown - How the disruption of oil, liquefied natural gas, and urea exports will cascade through the world economy https://www.unz.com/article/choke-point-the-global-economic-consequences-of-the-persian-gulf-shutdown/ by Larry C. Johnson, former analyst for the CIA and the US State Dept - March 10, 2026 - Unz Review - Archive https://archive.is/8sQx6
Of the three commodity shocks, the disruption of urea exports from the Persian Gulf may be the least immediately visible — but could prove the most enduring in its consequences. Urea is the world’s most widely used nitrogen fertiliser. It is synthesised from natural gas via the Haber-Bosch process, and the Gulf states — particularly Saudi Arabia, Qatar, the UAE, and Oman — are among the world’s largest producers and exporters, collectively accounting for a significant share of global urea trade.
The dependency of modern agriculture on synthetic nitrogen fertiliser is difficult to overstate. It is estimated that roughly half of the nitrogen in the human body today passed through the Haber-Bosch process at some point — meaning that artificial fertiliser now sustains approximately half of the world’s population. A collapse in urea supply would threaten crop yields on a global scale.
Crop yield decline. Without adequate nitrogen fertiliser, yields of staple crops — wheat, rice, maize, soy — would fall dramatically within one to two growing seasons. The effect would not be uniform: wealthy agricultural nations with domestic fertiliser capacity or large stockpiles (the United States, Canada, parts of Europe) would be more insulated. The developing world, particularly sub-Saharan Africa and South and Southeast Asia, would face acute shortages.
Food price inflation. Global food prices, already elevated by conflict-related supply disruptions in recent years, would surge further. The Food and Agriculture Organisation’s food price index would likely break historical records. Bread, rice, and staple grain prices would become unaffordable for hundreds of millions of people.
Geopolitical instability. Historical evidence linking sharp food price spikes to political instability is robust. The Arab Spring of 2011 coincided with a period of record food prices. A global urea shortage and its downstream consequences for food security would heighten the risk of civil unrest, state fragility, and humanitarian crisis across numerous countries.
Urea Exposure: Country Risk Summary by Larry C. Johnson.
(Prokopenko 2026) Beyond Oil: Hormuz Closure Puts Russia in the Lead in the Fertilizer Market - The Kremlin expects to not only profit from rising fertilizer prices but also exact revenge for the collapse of the 2023 grain deal https://carnegieendowment.org/russia-eurasia/politika/2026/03/russia-new-fertilizer-export by Alexandra Prokopenko, Fellow, Carnegie Russia Eurasia Center - Carnegie Endowment For International Peace - Mar 24, 2026 - Archive https://archive.is/fbR3b
Prokopenko with a threat-assessment on the potential of Russia to take advantage of the current situation. Sometimes stretches things a bit, for example:
Importers in Nigeria and Ghana are already pre-purchasing Russian fertilizers for the third quarter of 2026. This is a rational market response to the disappearance of competing supply, and once established, these connections will solidify into a dependency that could outlast any ceasefire.
What does “solidify into a dependency” mean actually? When the crisis ends the African coutries are perfectly able to reassess their options and choose another supplier, n’est-ce pas?
(Welsh 2026) Iran, Fertilizer, and Food Security: Risks, Impacts, and Policy Responses https://www.csis.org/analysis/iran-fertilizer-and-food-security-risks-impacts-and-policy-responses by Caitlin Welsh - CSIS - April 1, 2026 - Archive https://archive.is/8sz55
Lengthy informative article, Welsh asks and then answers relevant queswtions about a possible global food crisis because of the Hormuz closing:
Beyond high energy prices, the war with Iran is also directly increasing the price of fertilizer through the restriction of exports of fertilizers and inputs to fertilizer production. Prior to this war, approximately 20–30 percent of global fertilizer exports transited the Strait of Hormuz, including approximately 23 percent of ammonia and 34 percent of urea, the most commonly used nitrogen-based fertilizers, along with 20 percent of phosphates traded globally. The strait also transits approximately 20 percent of global LNG exports, and approximately 45 percent of global exports of sulfur, a byproduct of oil production that is used to produce phosphate-based fertilizers.
(Lu 2026) The Iran War’s Agriculture Shock Isn’t Over Yet Even with a cease-fire deal in place, vital energy and fertilizer flows remain trapped https://foreignpolicy.com/2026/04/10/iran-war-ceasefire-energy-fertilizer-agriculture-food-prices/ By Christina Lu, staff writer at Foreign Policy - Apr 10, 2026 - Archive https://archive.is/3TMQF
The crisis could go global really soon:
From Ireland to India, the war’s economic shock is already rippling across farm communities worldwide. Farmers took to the streets in Ireland this week to protest fuel prices, while surging fertilizer costs have reportedly roiled farmers across the United Kingdom. Egypt has capped the price of unsubsidized bread loaves in order to shield consumers from higher prices, and in Vietnam—the world’s second-biggest rice exporter—higher costs and shipping delays have disrupted rice farming.
Comment: And if that doesn’t do it, there is always oil and LNG.
Started: Fri, Apr 17, 2026
