No Farms, No Food! Farmer protest in Ireland, April 2026. Source: Iowa Public Radio.
Most discussions seem to be about oil but there is another commodity affected by the Hormuz closing.
(Johnson 2026) Choke Point: The Global Economic Consequences of the Persian Gulf Shutdown - How the disruption of oil, liquefied natural gas, and urea exports will cascade through the world economy https://www.unz.com/article/choke-point-the-global-economic-consequences-of-the-persian-gulf-shutdown/ by Larry C. Johnson, former analyst for the CIA and the US State Dept - March 10, 2026 - Unz Review - Archive https://archive.is/8sQx6
Of the three commodity shocks, the disruption of urea exports from the Persian Gulf may be the least immediately visible — but could prove the most enduring in its consequences. Urea is the world’s most widely used nitrogen fertiliser. It is synthesised from natural gas via the Haber-Bosch process, and the Gulf states — particularly Saudi Arabia, Qatar, the UAE, and Oman — are among the world’s largest producers and exporters, collectively accounting for a significant share of global urea trade.
The dependency of modern agriculture on synthetic nitrogen fertiliser is difficult to overstate. It is estimated that roughly half of the nitrogen in the human body today passed through the Haber-Bosch process at some point — meaning that artificial fertiliser now sustains approximately half of the world’s population. A collapse in urea supply would threaten crop yields on a global scale.
Crop yield decline. Without adequate nitrogen fertiliser, yields of staple crops — wheat, rice, maize, soy — would fall dramatically within one to two growing seasons. The effect would not be uniform: wealthy agricultural nations with domestic fertiliser capacity or large stockpiles (the United States, Canada, parts of Europe) would be more insulated. The developing world, particularly sub-Saharan Africa and South and Southeast Asia, would face acute shortages.
Food price inflation. Global food prices, already elevated by conflict-related supply disruptions in recent years, would surge further. The Food and Agriculture Organisation’s food price index would likely break historical records. Bread, rice, and staple grain prices would become unaffordable for hundreds of millions of people.
Geopolitical instability. Historical evidence linking sharp food price spikes to political instability is robust. The Arab Spring of 2011 coincided with a period of record food prices. A global urea shortage and its downstream consequences for food security would heighten the risk of civil unrest, state fragility, and humanitarian crisis across numerous countries.
Urea Exposure: Country Risk Summary by Larry C. Johnson.
(Prokopenko 2026) Beyond Oil: Hormuz Closure Puts Russia in the Lead in the Fertilizer Market - The Kremlin expects to not only profit from rising fertilizer prices but also exact revenge for the collapse of the 2023 grain deal https://carnegieendowment.org/russia-eurasia/politika/2026/03/russia-new-fertilizer-export by Alexandra Prokopenko, Fellow, Carnegie Russia Eurasia Center - Carnegie Endowment For International Peace - Mar 24, 2026 - Archive https://archive.is/fbR3b
Prokopenko with a threat-assessment on the potential of Russia to take advantage of the current situation. Sometimes stretches things a bit, for example:
Importers in Nigeria and Ghana are already pre-purchasing Russian fertilizers for the third quarter of 2026. This is a rational market response to the disappearance of competing supply, and once established, these connections will solidify into a dependency that could outlast any ceasefire.
What does “solidify into a dependency” mean actually? When the crisis ends the African coutries are perfectly able to reassess their options and choose another supplier, n’est-ce pas?
(Welsh 2026) Iran, Fertilizer, and Food Security: Risks, Impacts, and Policy Responses https://www.csis.org/analysis/iran-fertilizer-and-food-security-risks-impacts-and-policy-responses by Caitlin Welsh - CSIS - April 1, 2026 - Archive https://archive.is/8sz55
Lengthy informative article, Welsh asks and then answers relevant queswtions about a possible global food crisis because of the Hormuz closing:
Beyond high energy prices, the war with Iran is also directly increasing the price of fertilizer through the restriction of exports of fertilizers and inputs to fertilizer production. Prior to this war, approximately 20–30 percent of global fertilizer exports transited the Strait of Hormuz, including approximately 23 percent of ammonia and 34 percent of urea, the most commonly used nitrogen-based fertilizers, along with 20 percent of phosphates traded globally. The strait also transits approximately 20 percent of global LNG exports, and approximately 45 percent of global exports of sulfur, a byproduct of oil production that is used to produce phosphate-based fertilizers.
(Lu 2026) The Iran War’s Agriculture Shock Isn’t Over Yet Even with a cease-fire deal in place, vital energy and fertilizer flows remain trapped https://foreignpolicy.com/2026/04/10/iran-war-ceasefire-energy-fertilizer-agriculture-food-prices/ By Christina Lu, staff writer at Foreign Policy - Apr 10, 2026 - Archive https://archive.is/3TMQF
The crisis could go global really soon:
From Ireland to India, the war’s economic shock is already rippling across farm communities worldwide. Farmers took to the streets in Ireland this week to protest fuel prices, while surging fertilizer costs have reportedly roiled farmers across the United Kingdom. Egypt has capped the price of unsubsidized bread loaves in order to shield consumers from higher prices, and in Vietnam—the world’s second-biggest rice exporter—higher costs and shipping delays have disrupted rice farming.
Comment: And if that doesn’t do it, there is always oil and LNG.
Started: Fri, Apr 17, 2026
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