Saturday, October 19, 2024

File: Israel and Terrorism

Version 3: Fri, Oct 18, 2024

Albert Einstein and others letter.jpg
By Albert Einstein, Hannah Arendt, Sidney Hook, et.al. - https://archive.org/details/AlbertEinsteinLetterToTheNewYorkTimes.December41948, CC0, Link

Letter written to the New York Times condemning Begin and the Deir Yassin massacre, published Dec 4, 1948. The signature of Albert Einstein is highlighted.


About this post:

Continuing my investigations of Israel, its history and the role it plays as a major source of problems in the Middle East. In an earlier post LLM: Jewish Terrorist Groups we had information on Jewish terrorist groups in the 1940s.

What prompted the current post was the Crocus City Hall attack on March 22, 2024, by an ISIS affiliated group. The MSM reported the attack as though ISIS is an independent and autonomous group. Having on Twitter since 2009 I have come across numerous post that clearly show communication, collaboration and support of ISIS not just from Israel but also US and Turkey.

Using LLM to investigate the Israel/ISIS connection gave limited information, you can see the results below. What follows combines information from various publications, and searches on the Web and my Twitter feed. It turns out the connection between Israel and terrorism goes back well before the 1940s and continues to our day.

And what about the Crocus City Hall attack? My current working hypothesis involves Burisma board member and former CIA officer Joseph Cofer Black. More information in the Burisma section of File: Corruption in Ukraine.


Some Important Dates

  • World War I (July 28, 1914 – November 11, 1918)
  • Balfour Declaration (1917)
  • League of Nations (10 January 1920 - 18 April 1946)
  • British Mandate for Palestine (29 September 1923 - 15 May 1948)
  • Betar (Revisionist Zionist youth movement 1923)
  • Assassination of Jacob Israël de Haan (30 June 1924) - by Haganah
  • Haifa massacres (March and July 1938) - 39 dead, 90 injured - by Irgun
  • World War II (September 1, 1939 – September 2, 1945)
  • Assassination of Lord Moyne in Cairo (November 1944) - by Lehi
  • United Nations official establishment (October 24, 1945)
  • King David Hotel bombing (July 1946) - 91 dead - by Irgun
  • Deir Yassin massacre (April 1948) - 100-120 dead - by Menachim Begin with Irgun and Lehi
  • Israeli Declaration of Independence (May 14, 1948)
  • Assassination of Count Folke Bernadotte (September 1948)

גרשון הנדל 2.jpg
By אנשי תנועת הנוער בית”ר ורשה 1939 - ארכיון מכון ז’בוטינסקי http://www.jabotinsky.org/Site/content/t5.asp?Pid=125&Sid=12, Public Domain, Link

Zeev Jabotinsky (bottom second from right) meeting with Betar leaders in Warsaw. Bottom left Menachem Begin (probably 1939) - Wikimedia


Jewish Terrorist Groups During the British Mandate

Haganah

Haganah (‘The Defense’ 1920–1948) was the main Zionist paramilitary organization in the British Mandate for Palestine. It formally disbanded in 1948 and merged into the IDF.

Irgun

Irgun Zevai Leumi (‘National Military Organiztion’ 1931-12 January 1949) split from Haganah, eventually merged also into IDF. Irgun was the military sector of Jabotinski’s ‘Revisionist Zionist’ movement

Stern Gang / Lehi

Lehi, acronym for Lohamei Herut Israel (‘Fighters for the Freedom of Israel’ 1940-1948). Founded by Avraham Stern and continued after his killing by the British forces in 1942, led by Yitzhak Shamir.

What did the Jewish Terrorist Groups do?

Essentially we have two types of attacks:

Indiscriminate Attacks

Examples: the grenade attacks in Haifa markets and elsewhere before WWII, the King David Hotel bombing and the Deir Yassin massacre among other instances.

Targeted Assassinations

Examples: the assassinations of Jacob Israël de Haan, Lord Moyne and Count Folke Bernadotte.

The typology breaks down if we contemplate the genocide in Gaza, where whole city blocks were detroyed supposedly to kill some Hamas official.


What happened to the Jewish Terrorist Groups after Independence?

The photograph shows Ze’ev Jabotinsky at a Hatzohar political party conference (likely in Paris, in the second half of the 1920s) - Wikimedia.

Ze'ev Jabotinsky at a Hatzohar Conference (likely in Paris, in the second half of the 1920s)
By Unknown author - via.lib.harvard.edu, Public Domain, Link

Hatzohar dissolved after Independence, with Herut taking its place:

A building block of Israel’s political perspective and statehood program, most Zionist terrorist groups transitioned from underground terrorist groups to political mainstreams parties rapidly with the founding of Israel in May, 1948. (Note, however, that some groups continued to operate even after May, 1948, e.g. assassination of Count Bernadotte in September, 1948 as mentioned above.) Menachim Begin transformed the Irgun into a political party called Herut. The Lehi became the Moledet party which today continues to openly advocate the ethnic cleansing of Palestinians from the West Bank and Gaza, territories now occupied by Israel. Paradoxically, terrorist leaders Menachim Begin and Yitzhak Shamir later became Prime Ministers of Israel – their political heirs now forming part of the political establishment of Israel. (CJPME Factsheet 23, 2007)


Netanyahu and Menachem Begin - 2016

Netanyahu at the Begin Heritage Center in Jerusalem on March 14, 2016 - Source: Times of Israel


Israel with ISIS and Hamas

ISIS

Exclusive: Israel Is Tending to Wounded Syrian Rebels By Colum Lynch - Foreign Policy, June 11, 2014 - Archive

Report: Israel treating al-Qaida fighters wounded in Syria civil war Jerusalem Post, March 13, 2015 - Archive

Israel Reportedly Providing Direct Aid, Funding to Syrian Rebels Haaretz, Jun 19, 2017 - Archive

IDF chief finally acknowledges that Israel supplied weapons to Syrian rebels: In interview with UK’s Sunday Times, outgoing army commander Gadi Eisenkot says Israel gave opposition groups light arms ‘for self-defense’ By Judah Ari Gross - Times of Israel, 14 January 2019 - Archive

ISIS apologizes to Israel

Israel forgives Daesh for attack following ‘apology’ Middle East Monitor - April 29, 2017 - Archive

Isis fighters ‘attacked Israel Defense Forces unit, then apologised’ claims former commander by Chloe Farand - The Independent - y 28 August 2017 - Archive

ISIS and Mossad

Israeli Website Claims ISIS Commander Revealed As Mossad Agent by Whitney Webb - Sep 12, 2017 - Archive

Netayahu and the funding of Hamas

Op-ed: For years, Netanyahu propped up Hamas. Now it’s blown up in our faces By Tal Schneider - 8 October 2023 - Times of Israel - Archive

The premier’s policy of treating the terror group as a partner, at the expense of Abbas and Palestinian statehood, has resulted in wounds that will take Israel years to heal from

Opinion | A Brief History of the Netanyahu-Hamas Alliance by Adam Raz - Haaretz - Oct 20, 2023 - Archived

For 14 years, Netanyahu’s policy was to keep Hamas in power; the pogrom of October 7, 2023, helps the Israeli prime minister preserve his own rule

‘Buying Quiet’: Inside the Israeli Plan That Propped Up Hamas By Mark Mazzetti and Ronen Bergman - NY Times - Dec 10 2023 - Archive

Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu gambled that a strong Hamas (but not too strong) would keep the peace and reduce pressure for a Palestinian state

Why Netanyahu Bolstered Hamas: The Israeli prime minister followed a decades-old divide-and-rule strategy that fuels endless war by Jeet Heer - The Nation - December 11, 2023 Archive

The EU’s top diplomat Josep Borrell on Friday openly accused Israel of having financed the Palestinian militant group Hamas by Šejla Ahmatović - Politico - Jan 20, 2024

Hamas was financed by the Israeli government in an attempt to weaken the Palestinian Authority.

Top Secret: In a 2018 letter, Netanyahu asks Qatar to fund Hamas by Nir (Shoko) Cohen - Y Net News - May 5, 2024

In letter seen by handful of people, PM urges Doha to deliver $30 million to Gaza monthly, claiming funding Hamas would preserve regional stability and avert humanitarian crisis


References

Bergman, Ronen (2019) Rise and Kill First: The Secret History of Israel’s Targeted Assassinations - (Penguin 2019) - Online: https://www.penguinrandomhouse.com/books/209254/rise-and-kill-first-by-ronen-bergman/. Ronen Bergman is a senior correspondent for military and intelligence affairs for Israeli newspaper Yedioth Ahronoth.

Bronner, Ethan (2018) “Poisoned toothpaste and exploding phones: Israel linked to 2,700 assassination operations in 70 years” - Bloomberg News - Jan 27, 2018 - On;ine: https://nationalpost.com/news/world/poisoned-toothpaste-and-exploding-phones-israel-linked-to-2700-assassination-operations-in-70-years - Archive: https://archive.ph/XPIJg

Chagnollaud, Jean-Paul (2013) “Les assassinats ciblés ou comment détruire un processus politique - Pages 89 à 102 - (”Targeted Assassinations or How to Destroy a Political Process”) - Online: https://shs.cairn.info/revue-confluences-mediterranee-2013-3-page-89?lang=fr

CJPME Factsheet 23 (2007) Jewish Terrorism under the British Mandate by Canadians for Justice and Peace in the Middle East - Online: https://www.cjpme.org/fs_023 - Archive: https://archive.ph/BZ1Vs

Cohen, Samy (2008) “Les assassinats ciblés pendant la seconde Intifada : une arme à double tranchant” - Critique internationale, No. 41 (octobre-décembre 2008), pp. 61-80 (20 pages) Published By: Sciences Po University Press - (“Targeted Assinations during the Second Intifada: A double-edged Weapon”) Online: https://www.jstor.org/stable/24565240

Haavara (1941) Haavara Agreement: A scanned copy of the document (dated January 1941) sent by the Stern Gang asking Nazi Germany for alliance between both groups - Online: https://www.palestineremembered.com/Acre/Palestine-Remembered/Story799.html - Archive: https://archive.ph/MIU7U

Fattori, Francesca et al. (2024) ’One map to visualize 70 years of targeted assassinations by Israel By Francesca Fattori (text), Delphine Papin, Victor Simonnet (maps), Iness Debbouza and Eric Dedier (development) - Le Monde - Online: https://www.lemonde.fr/en/international/article/2024/09/27/one-map-to-visualize-70-years-of-targeted-assassinations-by-israel_6727462_4.html - Archive: https://archive.ph/hyAko - Only part of this article is available online, and without the map, however the sources for the graphics are among the references.

O’ Malley, JP (2016) ‘Seeing Begin as the beginning of the end for traditional Zionism: The 40-year-old Jabotinsky resurgence is responsible for marginalizing peace talks, historian Milton Viorst claims in his newest book’ by JP O’ Malley - Times of Israel - 7 July 2016 - Online: https://www.timesofisrael.com/seeing-begin-as-the-beginning-of-the-end-for-traditional-zionism/

Meyssan, Thierry (2024) “The veil is being torn: the hidden truths of Jabotinsky and Netanyahu” - Voltaire Net - 25 Jan 2024 - Online: https://voltairenet.org/article220334.html - Archive: https://archive.ph/HCOsJ

Walton, Calder (2014) “Became British Spies’ Biggest Enemy: In World War II’s aftermath, MI5 turned to fight a new threat. It wasn’t the Soviets. It was bombers from Jerusalem” - Foreign Policy Magazine - January 1, 2014 - Online: https://foreignpolicy.com/2014/01/01/how-zionist-extremism-became-british-spies-biggest-enemy/ - Archive: https://archive.ph/TLCPw - Calder Walton is a historian at the Harvard Kennedy School.


This was the LLM search mentioned earlier that started this post. It does not help much hence the rest of the post.

Has there been any documented attacks by ISIS on Israel? Has there been any cases of ISIS wounded that were hospitalized in Israel?


Mistral.AI

As of now, there have been no officially documented, large-scale attacks by ISIS directly on Israel. There have been instances of rocket fire and other minor attacks from ISIS-affiliated groups in the Sinai and Golan Heights regions, but these incidents have been relatively small and sporadic. It’s important to note that the situation in the Middle East is complex and fluid, and the status of relationships between different groups can change. For the most accurate and up-to-date information, it’s recommended to refer to reliable news sources or official government statements.


Gemini

If you’d like up-to-date information, try using Google Search.


ChatGPT

Yes, there have been documented instances where individuals wounded in conflicts related to ISIS activities near Israel’s borders, particularly in Syria, were treated in Israeli hospitals. Israel has a policy of providing medical treatment to individuals wounded in the Syrian conflict, regardless of their affiliations. This humanitarian effort has included treating civilians, rebels, and others caught in the conflict, and it has been reported that among those treated, there could have been individuals linked to various factions, potentially including those associated with ISIS.

As for direct attacks by ISIS on Israel, while ISIS has expressed hostility towards Israel, the instances of direct confrontations or attacks have been relatively rare. However, there have been claims of responsibility by ISIS for attacks in Israel and along its borders, particularly in areas close to Syria and the Sinai Peninsula of Egypt, where ISIS-affiliated groups have been more active. These instances have generally been limited and have not amounted to a sustained campaign of attacks against Israel.


Additional Information

Posts on this site of possible interest:


Started: Sat, Mar 23, 2024

About Metagora

Saturday, October 12, 2024

LLM: Keynes and Knight on Chance

Version 2: Sat, Oct 12, 2024

Take a chance!

Chance by Nick Youngson CC BY-SA 3.0 Alpha Stock Images - Source: picpedia.org


The year 1921 saw the publication of “A Treatise on Probability” by John Maynard Keynes and “Risk, Uncertainty and Profit” by Frank H. Knight. Compare and contrast the role chance, probability and risk play in the work of these two eminent economists in these books and later works. Did they changed their views over the course of their careers? Please direct me to academic sources with bibliographic information.


Mistral.AI

John Maynard Keynes

“A Treatise on Probability” (1921)

  • Chance and Probability: Keynes viewed probability as a logical relation between propositions, not a frequency of occurrence. He argued that probability is a measure of the degree of rational belief in a proposition given the available evidence.
  • Risk: Keynes did not sharply distinguish between risk and uncertainty. He discussed risk in terms of probabilistic outcomes but also acknowledged fundamental uncertainty where probabilities cannot be assigned.

Later Works

  • Change in Views: In his later works, such as “The General Theory of Employment, Interest, and Money” (1936), Keynes placed more emphasis on the role of uncertainty in economic decision-making. He introduced the concept of “animal spirits” to describe the instincts and emotions that drive economic behavior in the face of uncertainty.

Frank H. Knight

“Risk, Uncertainty and Profit” (1921)

  • Risk: Knight defined risk as situations where the probability of different outcomes can be measured and quantified. He saw risk as calculable and insurable.
  • Uncertainty: Knight distinguished uncertainty from risk. Uncertainty refers to situations where the probability of outcomes is unknown and unmeasurable. He argued that true uncertainty is the source of profit in a market economy.
  • Chance and Probability: Knight’s focus was more on the practical implications of risk and uncertainty in economic decision-making rather than the philosophical underpinnings of probability.

Later Works

  • Consistency in Views: Knight’s views on risk and uncertainty remained largely consistent throughout his career. He continued to emphasize the distinction between risk and uncertainty and their implications for economic theory and practice.

Comparison and Contrast

  • Probability: Keynes had a more philosophical and logical approach to probability, while Knight was more concerned with its practical implications for economic decision-making.
  • Risk and Uncertainty: Knight made a clear distinction between risk and uncertainty, while Keynes’ early work did not sharply differentiate between the two. However, Keynes’ later work acknowledged the role of fundamental uncertainty in economic behavior.
  • Change in Views: Keynes’ views evolved to place more emphasis on uncertainty, while Knight’s views remained relatively consistent.

Academic Sources

  1. Keynes, J. M. (1921). A Treatise on Probability. Macmillan.
  2. Keynes, J. M. (1936). The General Theory of Employment, Interest, and Money. Macmillan.
  3. Knight, F. H. (1921). Risk, Uncertainty and Profit. Houghton Mifflin Company.
  4. Runde, J. (1998). “Keynes’s Early Philosophical Thoughts on Uncertainty and Probability.” Cambridge Journal of Economics, 22(5), 585-597.
  5. LeRoy, S. F., & Singell, L. D. (1987). “Knight and Keynes on Risk and Uncertainty.” Journal of Political Economy, 95(2), 391-405.

These sources provide a detailed analysis of Keynes’ and Knight’s views on chance, probability, risk, and uncertainty, as well as the evolution of their thoughts over time.


Claude.AI

Here’s a comparison of Keynes and Knight’s views on chance, probability, and risk, focusing on their 1921 works and later developments, in markdown format:

Initial Works (1921)

John Maynard Keynes: “A Treatise on Probability”

  • Focused on logical probability
  • Emphasized subjective probabilities based on available evidence
  • Introduced the concept of “weight of evidence”

Frank H. Knight: “Risk, Uncertainty and Profit”

  • Distinguished between risk (measurable uncertainty) and true uncertainty
  • Risk: can be quantified and insured against
  • Uncertainty: cannot be measured or predicted

Key Differences

  1. Nature of Probability:
    • Keynes: Logical and subjective
    • Knight: Empirical and objective
  2. Uncertainty:
    • Keynes: Degrees of uncertainty based on available evidence
    • Knight: Sharp distinction between measurable risk and unmeasurable uncertainty
  3. Economic Implications:
    • Keynes: Emphasized role of expectations in economic decision-making
    • Knight: Focused on entrepreneurship as a response to true uncertainty

Later Developments

Keynes

  • In “The General Theory of Employment, Interest and Money” (1936), Keynes further developed ideas on uncertainty in economic decision-making
  • Introduced the concept of “animal spirits” influencing investment decisions

Knight

  • Continued to refine his ideas on risk and uncertainty throughout his career
  • Emphasized the role of judgment in entrepreneurial decision-making

Evolution of Views

Both economists largely maintained their core ideas throughout their careers, but refined and applied them to broader economic contexts:

  • Keynes applied his probabilistic thinking to macroeconomic theory
  • Knight extended his concepts to discussions of economic organization and entrepreneurship

Academic Sources

  1. Runde, J. (1994). Keynes after Ramsey: In defence of ‘A Treatise on Probability’. Studies in History and Philosophy of Science Part A, 25(1), 97-121.

  2. LeRoy, S. F., & Singell Jr, L. D. (1987). Knight on risk and uncertainty. Journal of Political Economy, 95(2), 394-406.

  3. Fontana, G. (2001). Keynes on probability, uncertainty and decision making. Journal of Post Keynesian Economics, 24(2), 267-294.

  4. Langlois, R. N., & Cosgel, M. M. (1993). Frank Knight on risk, uncertainty, and the firm: a new interpretation. Economic Inquiry, 31(3), 456-465.

  5. Brady, M. E. (2018). Keynes, mathematics and probability: A reappraisal. International Journal of Applied Economics and Econometrics, 26(1), 81-121.

These sources provide in-depth analyses of Keynes and Knight’s works on probability, risk, and uncertainty, including their evolution over time. They offer a good starting point for further research on this topic.


Gemini

Keynes and Knight were two prominent economists of the early 20th century whose works significantly influenced economic thought. Their views on chance, probability, and risk were central to their contributions, particularly in their seminal works:

  • Keynes: A Treatise on Probability (1921)
  • Knight: Risk, Uncertainty and Profit (1921)

Key Differences in Their Approaches

While both economists dealt with uncertainty, their perspectives differed significantly:

Keynes: * Subjective probability: Keynes emphasized the subjective nature of probability, arguing that it is based on degrees of belief rather than objective frequencies. * Logical probability: He introduced the concept of logical probability, which relates to the degree of belief that it is rational to have in a proposition given other propositions. * Risk: For Keynes, risk was associated with situations where probabilities could be objectively assessed.

Knight: * Uncertainty: Knight distinguished between risk and uncertainty. Risk involved measurable probabilities, while uncertainty was characterized by situations where probabilities were unknown or unknowable. * Profit: He argued that profit was primarily a reward for bearing uncertainty, not for taking risks.

Evolution of Their Views

Both Keynes and Knight’s views on probability and risk evolved over their careers.

Keynes: * Shift towards objective probability: In later works, Keynes’s views on probability shifted towards a more objective approach, acknowledging the role of objective frequencies in certain contexts. * Focus on uncertainty: He also became more interested in the concept of uncertainty, recognizing its significance in economic decision-making.

Knight: * Adherence to uncertainty: Knight remained steadfast in his distinction between risk and uncertainty, emphasizing the importance of uncertainty in economic analysis.

Academic Sources

For in-depth exploration of Keynes and Knight’s views on chance, probability, and risk, consider the following academic sources:

  • Keynes, John Maynard. A Treatise on Probability. Macmillan, 1921.
  • Knight, Frank H. Risk, Uncertainty and Profit. Houghton Mifflin, 1921.
  • O’Donnell, Roderick M. “Keynes’s Philosophy of Probability.” Journal of Economic Literature 20, no. 3 (1982): 1237-1262.
  • Shackle, G. L. S. Uncertainty in Economics. Cambridge University Press, 1955.
  • Stiglitz, Joseph E., and Amartya Sen, eds. The Oxford Handbook of Uncertainty and Risk. Oxford University Press, 2009.

These sources provide valuable insights into the original works of Keynes and Knight, as well as subsequent interpretations and developments in their theories.


ChatGPT

In 1921, two significant works emerged: John Maynard Keynes’s “A Treatise on Probability” and Frank H. Knight’s “Risk, Uncertainty and Profit”. Both economists delved into the concept of probability, uncertainty, and risk, but their approaches and interpretations differed in important ways. Below is a comparative analysis of their views, alongside how their positions evolved over time.


Keynes: “A Treatise on Probability” (1921)

1. Concept of Probability

  • Epistemic Probability: Keynes’s approach to probability in “A Treatise on Probability” was primarily epistemic, meaning that probability was not merely about frequencies or objective chances but about degrees of belief or rational credence based on available knowledge.
  • Logical Relation: Keynes argued that probabilities express a logical relationship between propositions, grounded in our state of partial knowledge. For him, probability was a way of reasoning under uncertainty when certainty is unattainable.

2. Uncertainty

  • Quantifiable vs. Unquantifiable Uncertainty: Keynes distinguished between measurable risks (where probabilities can be calculated) and unquantifiable uncertainties, where it is impossible to assign precise probabilities.
  • Uncertainty in Economic Behavior: In his later works, notably in “The General Theory of Employment, Interest, and Money” (1936), Keynes emphasized the centrality of fundamental uncertainty in economic behavior. He argued that many economic decisions are made in conditions where future outcomes cannot be predicted probabilistically, leading to phenomena like investment volatility and economic instability.

3. Evolution of Keynes’s Views

  • Increased Focus on Uncertainty: In Keynes’s later economic writings, particularly “The General Theory”, he expanded on the theme of unquantifiable uncertainty, focusing more on how psychological factors like confidence, expectations, and conventions drive behavior in uncertain environments.
  • Enduring Epistemic View: Although Keynes became more concerned with practical economic uncertainty, his fundamental view that probability is tied to logical relationships and partial knowledge remained consistent throughout his career.

Knight: “Risk, Uncertainty and Profit” (1921)

1. Distinction between Risk and Uncertainty

  • Risk: Knight made a clear distinction between risk, where the probabilities of outcomes are known and can be managed using statistical methods, and uncertainty, where these probabilities are unknown or unknowable.
  • Profit and Entrepreneurial Activity: Knight posited that profit arises from true uncertainty, as only in situations where outcomes are unpredictable do entrepreneurs earn profits for bearing this uncertainty. Risks, on the other hand, can be insured or hedged, and therefore do not generate the same kind of profit.

2. Probability and Economic Decision-Making

  • Focus on True Uncertainty: Unlike Keynes, who developed a broader theory of probability applicable to a variety of fields, Knight’s interest was specifically in economic decision-making. He stressed that much of economic activity, particularly entrepreneurial decision-making, takes place under conditions of uncertainty rather than calculable risk.
  • Economic Theory Implications: Knight’s work led to the differentiation in economics between situations where market outcomes can be predicted based on statistical probabilities and those where they cannot. This had implications for theories of competition, market equilibrium, and entrepreneurship.

3. Evolution of Knight’s Views

  • Consistency in Approach: Knight remained consistent in his view that true uncertainty is a key feature of entrepreneurial markets. He maintained that economic profit depends on the ability to deal with the unknown, a stance he continued to advocate in his later works.
  • Philosophical Reflections: Knight, especially in his later life, became more interested in the philosophical implications of uncertainty and its connection to ethics and human behavior, though this did not significantly alter his core economic theory.

Comparison of Keynes and Knight

Aspect Keynes Knight
Nature of Probability Epistemic, grounded in degrees of belief. Probability relates to known risks; uncertainty remains outside the scope of probability.
Risk vs. Uncertainty Distinguishes between measurable and unmeasurable uncertainty. Distinction between calculable risk and unquantifiable uncertainty is central.
Economic Focus Uncertainty affects investment and behavior; emphasized in later works. True uncertainty leads to profits in entrepreneurship.
Philosophical Approach Logical relations between propositions. Economic uncertainty has broader philosophical and ethical implications.
Change in Views Increased emphasis on uncertainty in economic behavior, but epistemic probability theory remained constant. Consistent in distinguishing risk from uncertainty; later works delve into philosophical dimensions.

Academic Sources

  1. Gillies, Donald A.
    Philosophical Theories of Probability. Routledge, 2000.
    • This book provides a detailed exploration of various philosophical approaches to probability, including Keynes’s epistemic probability. It contrasts his views with frequentist and Bayesian interpretations.
  2. Bateman, Bradley W.
    Keynes’s Uncertain Revolution. University of Michigan Press, 1996.
    • Bateman explores how Keynes’s views on uncertainty evolved, particularly how they influenced his later work in macroeconomics.
  3. Emmett, Ross B.
    The Elgar Companion to the Chicago School of Economics. Edward Elgar Publishing, 2010.
    • This work provides insight into Knight’s contributions to economic theory and how his views on risk and uncertainty fit into the broader Chicago School tradition.
  4. O’Donnell, R. M.
    Keynes: Philosophy, Economics and Politics: The Philosophical Foundations of Keynes’s Thought and their Influence on His Economics and Politics. Palgrave Macmillan, 1989.
    • This text focuses on the philosophical foundations of Keynes’s work, including his theory of probability and uncertainty.
  5. LeRoy, Stephen F., and Larry D. Singell.
    “Knight on Risk and Uncertainty.” Journal of Political Economy 95, no. 2 (1987): 394–406.
    • This paper discusses Knight’s key distinction between risk and uncertainty and its implications for economic theory, including profit theory.

Conclusion

Both Keynes and Knight offered pioneering views on the role of risk and uncertainty in economic decision-making, but their approaches were rooted in different intellectual traditions. Keynes’s focus on epistemic probability evolved into a broader theory of uncertainty in economics, while Knight maintained a consistent focus on the entrepreneurial implications of uncertainty. Both perspectives continue to influence modern economic theory, especially in areas such as behavioral economics and risk management.


Additional Resources

Risk, Uncertainty and Profit by Frank H. Knight - Online copy at the Mises Institute

Knight’s groundbreaking study of the role of the entrepreneur in economic life.

Risk, Uncertainty and Profit by Frank H. Knight Review by: Wesley C. Mitchell - The American Economic Review, Vol. 12, No. 2 (Jun., 1922), pp. 274-275

A Treatise on Probability by John Maynard Keynes (1883-1946) - Macmillan & co. (1921) - Online copy by Project Gutenberg

Originally written as a Fellowship Dissertation for King’s College, Cambridge, between 1906 and 1909, Keynes’s Treatise represents his earliest large-scale writing. Rewritten for publication during 1909-12 and 1920-1, it was the first systematic work in English on the logical foundations of probability for 55 years.

Keynes on Uncertainty and Tragic Happiness: Complexity and Expectations by Anna M. Carabelli, Professor of Political Economy at the University of Eastern Piedmont, Italy - Palgrave Macmillans 2021

J.M. Keynes Versus F.H. Knight: Risk, Probability, and Uncertainty by Yasuhiro Sakai, Shiga University, Faculty of Economics, Center for Risk Research - Evolutionary Economics and Social Complexity Series , Springer 2019

Probability, risk and uncertainty By Professor Jochen Runde

A century later, work on uncertainty by F.H. Knight and J.M. Keynes remain highly relevant in areas ranging from economics and finance to insurance, law and management, says Jochen Runde, Professor of Economics & Organisation at Cambridge Judge Business School.

Started: Sat, Oct 12, 2024

About Metagora

Tuesday, October 1, 2024

LLM: The Invasion of Cyprus in 1974

Version 2: Tue, Oct 1, 2024

Cyprus: Never forget 1974

Image source: PSEKA - International Coordinating Committee Justice for Cyprus

CYPRUS: a country still divided - AKEL (@AKEL1926) - Historical review of Cyprus.

Cyprus 2024 AKEL Demonstration

Demonstration in remembrance of martyrs of the Greek-Turkish friendship in Cyprus, April 2024. Source: AKEL

Cyprus marks 50 years since coup and invasion by @PeoplesDispatch - July 24, 2024

Cypriots honor those who fell in the struggle for self-determination and freedom as it commemorates the 50th anniversary of the Greek junta coup and the Turkish invasionanniversary of the Greek junta coup and the Turkish invasion

The inhabitants of Cyprus observed a series of somber anniversaries, marking 50 years since the 1974 coup orchestrated by the Greek junta and the subsequent Turkish invasion. These events, which the Progressive Party of Working People (AKEL) describes as “two component parts of the same NATO plan for the division of our homeland people,” have left a painful legacy of bloodshed and devastation on the island.

On July 15, 1974, the Greek military dictatorship overthrew the elected government led by Makarios III, aiming to annex Cyprus to Greece. This intervention, enabled by Western forces including the United States and NATO, paved the way for the Turkish invasion that followed only days later, on July 20. The events caused the displacement, killing, and disappearance of hundreds of thousands of people, with over a third of the island remaining under Turkish occupation to this day.

Cyprus map before the invasion

Cyprus 1973 ethnic neutral.svg
By Badseed - Drawn by a map from the “Issues of the Middle East”, CIA publication, at the Perry Castaneda colletion, Link: [1]. The yellow colour shows land with predominantly greek-cypriot population, while purple shows predominantly turkish-cypriot population (known in greece as “turkish-cypriot pockets”). British military bases are displayed in red colour., Public Domain, Link

Also of interest giving an idea of what really happened in 1974:

Revealed: Britain secretly turned non-aligned Cyprus into a key NATO asset by Matt Kennard - 2 February 2023 (@declassifieduk)

A formerly top secret UK report shows Britain’s territory on Cyprus formed a key part of NATO’s surveillance and nuclear capabilities in the Mediterranean during the Cold War, despite knowing this was “not consistent” with the island’s non-aligned stance.

LLM Querry

Fifty years ago in July 1974, the Turkish army invaded Cyprus. The occupation continues to this day. Please suggest books in English about it including diplomatic efforts, the humanitarian consequences, the current situation and the Greek Cypriot and Turkish Cypriot perspectives.


Mistral.AI

Certainly! Here are some books in English that cover various aspects of the Turkish invasion of Cyprus in 1974, including diplomatic efforts, humanitarian consequences, the current situation, and both Greek Cypriot and Turkish Cypriot perspectives:

Books on the Turkish Invasion of Cyprus

Diplomatic Efforts

  1. “Cyprus: The Search for a Solution” by Farid Mirbagheri
    • This book examines the political and diplomatic efforts to resolve the Cyprus conflict, providing context for the ongoing occupation.
  2. “The Cyprus Problem: What Everyone Needs to Know” by James Ker-Lindsay
    • Ker-Lindsay offers a concise and accessible introduction to the Cyprus problem, including the diplomatic efforts to resolve the conflict.
  3. “Cyprus: A Modern History” by William Mallinson
    • This book provides a comprehensive overview of Cyprus’s modern history, including the diplomatic efforts surrounding the 1974 invasion.

Humanitarian Consequences

  1. “Cyprus: Divided Island” by Christopher Hitchens
    • Hitchens provides a personal and political account of the Cyprus conflict, including the humanitarian consequences of the 1974 invasion.
  2. “The Cyprus Conspiracy: America, Espionage and the Turkish Invasion” by Brendan O’Malley and Ian Craig
    • This book delves into the humanitarian impact of the Turkish invasion and the role of the United States in the events leading up to it.
  3. “Missing Persons in Cyprus” by Paul Sant Cassia
    • This book focuses on the humanitarian consequences of the conflict, particularly the issue of missing persons and the impact on families.

Current Situation

  1. “Cyprus: The Struggle for Power in the Eastern Mediterranean” by Christopher Brewin
    • Brewin explores the geopolitical context of the Cyprus conflict, including the current situation and its implications for the region.
  2. “Cyprus: A Contemporary Problem in Historical Perspective” by Robert Holland
    • Holland provides a historical perspective on the Cyprus problem, including the current situation and the ongoing division of the island.
  3. “The Cyprus Issue: The Four Freedoms in a (Non-)Functioning State” by Rebecca Bryant
    • Bryant examines the current situation in Cyprus, focusing on the four freedoms and the challenges of a non-functioning state.

Greek Cypriot and Turkish Cypriot Perspectives

  1. “Cyprus and the Politics of Memory: History, Community and Conflict” by Rebecca Bryant and Yiannis Papadakis
    • This book explores the politics of memory in Cyprus, including how the current situation is shaped by historical narratives and community identities from both Greek Cypriot and Turkish Cypriot perspectives.
  2. “The Cyprus Problem: What Everyone Needs to Know” by James Ker-Lindsay
    • Ker-Lindsay provides a balanced overview of the Cyprus problem, including perspectives from both Greek Cypriot and Turkish Cypriot communities.
  3. “Cyprus: Ethnic Conflict and International Politics” by Joseph S. Joseph
    • This book examines the Cyprus conflict from both Greek Cypriot and Turkish Cypriot perspectives, highlighting the complexities of ethnic conflict and international politics.
  4. “Cyprus: A Conflict at the Crossroads” by James Ker-Lindsay
    • Ker-Lindsay offers an in-depth analysis of the Cyprus conflict, including the perspectives of both Greek Cypriots and Turkish Cypriots on the ongoing division and potential solutions.
  5. “The Cyprus Conflict: From Independence to Annan Plan” by James Ker-Lindsay
    • This book provides a comprehensive overview of the Cyprus conflict, including the perspectives of both Greek Cypriots and Turkish Cypriots on key events and diplomatic efforts.

These books offer a range of perspectives and insights into the Turkish invasion of Cyprus, its diplomatic efforts, humanitarian consequences, the current situation, and the views of both Greek Cypriot and Turkish Cypriot communities.


Greek Cypriot prisoners taken to Adana camps Turkey .jpg
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Greek Cypriot prisoners taken to Adana camps in Turkey - Wikimedia


Claude AI

Here’s a list of recommended books in English about the Turkish invasion of Cyprus, its consequences, and ongoing situation, presented in markdown format:

Books on the Cyprus Conflict

Historical Context and Invasion

  1. “Cyprus: A Modern History” by William Mallinson
    • Provides a comprehensive overview of Cyprus’s history, including the events leading up to and following the 1974 invasion.
  2. “The Cyprus Problem: What Everyone Needs to Know” by James Ker-Lindsay
    • Offers a concise introduction to the conflict, including its historical roots and current status.

Diplomatic Efforts

  1. “Resolving the Cyprus Conflict: Negotiating History” by Michális Stavrou Michael
    • Examines the various diplomatic initiatives and negotiations that have taken place since 1974.
  2. “The Cyprus Issue: A Documentary History, 1878-2007” by Marios L. Evriviades
    • Compiles key diplomatic documents related to the Cyprus issue, providing insights into international efforts to resolve the conflict.

Humanitarian Consequences

  1. “Displaced Persons: The Literature of Exile from Cicero to Boethius” by Jo-Marie Claassen
    • While not exclusively about Cyprus, this book includes a chapter on the literature of Cypriot refugees, offering insight into the human cost of the conflict.
  2. “Echoes from the Dead Zone: Across the Cyprus Divide” by Yiannis Papadakis
    • Explores the impact of the division on both Greek and Turkish Cypriots through personal stories and ethnographic research.

Current Situation

  1. “An Island in Europe: The EU and the Transformation of Cyprus” edited by James Ker-Lindsay, Hubert Faustmann, and Fiona Mullen
    • Examines the impact of Cyprus’s EU membership on the conflict and prospects for resolution.
  2. “Cyprus and the Politics of Memory: History, Community and Conflict” edited by Rebecca Bryant and Yiannis Papadakis
    • Offers insights into how the conflict continues to shape Cypriot society and politics today.

Greek Cypriot Perspective

  1. “Cyprus: The Post-Imperial Constitution” by Alexis Heraclides
    • Provides an analysis of the conflict from a predominantly Greek Cypriot viewpoint.

Turkish Cypriot Perspective

  1. “The Cyprus Conflict: Looking Ahead” by Ahmet Sözen
    • Offers a perspective on the conflict and potential solutions from a Turkish Cypriot academic.

Remember to cross-reference these books with current reviews and academic citations, as perspectives on this ongoing conflict continue to evolve. Would you like me to elaborate on any of these recommendations or provide additional information about the Cyprus conflict?


Mothers for the missing Cypriots following the 1974 invasion.

Mothers for the missing Cypriots following the 1974 invasion. Source: ekathimerini.com


Gemini

Books on the Cyprus Issue

The Turkish invasion of Cyprus in 1974 is a complex issue with profound humanitarian and political implications. Here’s a selection of books that delve into different aspects of this ongoing conflict:

Diplomatic Efforts and International Relations

  • The Cyprus Problem: What Everyone Needs to Know by James Ker-Lindsay: This book provides a comprehensive overview of the Cyprus issue, including the diplomatic efforts to resolve the conflict.
  • The Making of Modern Cyprus: From Colony to Divided Island by Hubert Faust: This book explores the island’s history and the international involvement in the Cyprus problem.
  • Cyprus: A Divided Island by Nicholas Ridley: Offers a broad perspective on the history of Cyprus and the complexities of the conflict, including diplomatic initiatives.

Humanitarian Consequences and Human Rights

  • Island Torn: Cyprus and Its People by Pierre Oberling: This book delves into the human cost of the division of Cyprus, including the displacement of people and the challenges faced by both communities.
  • Missing: The Cyprus Problem and the Politics of Memory by Nilay Özer: This book examines the issue of missing persons and its impact on the divided island.

Greek Cypriot and Turkish Cypriot Perspectives

  • Cyprus from Within: An Anthology of Cypriot Writing edited by Dionysis G. Tsiakkourmas: This collection of essays and poems offers diverse perspectives from Greek Cypriots on the island’s history and the division.
  • The Cyprus Issue: A Turkish Perspective by Mehmet Ali Birand: This book presents the Turkish Cypriot viewpoint on the conflict and the challenges faced by the community.

The Current Situation

  • Cyprus: A Frozen Conflict by Dorothea Theodoropoulos: This book examines the current state of affairs on the island, including the challenges to peace and the aspirations of both communities.
  • Negotiating Cyprus: From Annan Plan to Bi-communal Talks by Hubert Faust: This book analyzes the recent diplomatic efforts and the obstacles to a settlement.

Note: It’s crucial to approach the Cyprus issue with a critical eye and to consider multiple perspectives. These books offer different viewpoints and can help you develop a deeper understanding of this complex conflict.

Would you like to focus on a specific aspect of the Cyprus issue, such as the role of Turkey, the impact on the economy, or the experiences of refugees?


ChatGPT

Certainly! Here’s a list of books in English that cover various aspects of the Turkish invasion of Cyprus in 1974, including diplomatic efforts, humanitarian consequences, current situations, and perspectives from both Greek Cypriot and Turkish Cypriot sides:

  1. “The Cyprus Conspiracy: America, Espionage, and the Turkish Invasion” by Brendan O’Malley and Ian Craig
    This book explores the geopolitical factors and intelligence operations that led to the invasion, providing insight into the diplomatic complexities and international interests involved.

  2. “The Cyprus Issue: A Documentary History, 1878-2006” by Murat Metin Hakki
    A comprehensive collection of key documents and agreements, this book offers an understanding of the diplomatic history of Cyprus and the ongoing efforts to resolve the conflict.

  3. “Divided Cyprus: Modernity, History, and an Island in Conflict” edited by Yiannis Papadakis, Nicos Peristianis, and Gisela Welz
    This anthology of essays examines the social, cultural, and historical aspects of the conflict, featuring perspectives from both Greek Cypriots and Turkish Cypriots.

  4. “Cyprus and the Politics of Memory: History, Community and Conflict” edited by Rebecca Bryant and Yiannis Papadakis
    This book delves into the narratives and memories of both communities, analyzing how history and memory shape the current situation and perspectives on the conflict.

  5. “Cyprus: The Search for a Solution” by Costa Carras and Harry Tzimitras
    Offering insights into the diplomatic efforts and negotiations over the years, this book discusses the challenges and possibilities for finding a resolution to the Cyprus problem.

  6. “The Cyprus Problem: What Everyone Needs to Know” by James Ker-Lindsay
    This accessible guide provides an overview of the Cyprus issue, including historical background, humanitarian consequences, and the perspectives of both communities.

  7. “Bitter Lemons of Cyprus” by Lawrence Durrell
    While primarily a memoir, Durrell’s account provides a vivid portrayal of life in Cyprus during the years leading up to the conflict, offering insights into the social and cultural tensions.

  8. “Rethinking the Cyprus Problem: A New Perspective on an Old Conflict” by James Ker-Lindsay
    This book examines the current situation in Cyprus, offering new insights and perspectives on the possibilities for conflict resolution and the future of the island.

These books cover a range of topics and perspectives, offering a well-rounded understanding of the complex and ongoing situation in Cyprus.


Started: Fri, Jul 26, 2024

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